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Lottery secret

In this short research article we will share our lottery ticket research results with you.

At the moment the price of lottery ticket is set by the market demand, but the truth is that minimal cost of a winning lottery ticket is higher than its market price. The real cost can be predicted by using the average chance of getting it. That is why we have decided to find out how hard it is to win in the lottery and in average how much such ticket should be worth!

The research itself was quite easy, our group of researchers were collecting empty vials and changing it to lottery tickets (it can be changed in edron potion shop - for each 100 empty vials (5 bps with vials) you will get a lottery ticket). When we had the tickets we did the tests - we just used the lottery tickets to check if it will become blank or winning one.

Lottery research


Results

In total we have collected 2732 lottery tickets (more than 1.3 million gps worth of empty vials!), after using them we got only 28 winning ones (so 2704 of the tickets were blank). What does it mean? That the chance to get a winning ticket is 1 in 97,5 (probably in reality its 1 in 100). One lottery ticket price is 500 gp (100 (vials) x 5 (price for 1 vial in gp) = 500). To have quite a high chance to get a winning lottery ticket you will have to use 100 tickets -> 50 000 gp. Of course there is a chance that you will get a winning lottery ticket in few draws, as well that you will get it after 200th draw, but the most likely result is to get one per 100 draws.
Since we know that average price of getting the winning lottery ticket is 50k, then its good to think if its not better to buy winning lottery ticket from some player for such price (often lower) than trading vials by yourself (which you can sell instead). Nowadays on many worlds the price of winning lottery ticket is set to around 30-40k - which is way lower than real price of getting such item.

Summary

- chance to win in a lottery is 1 to 100 (rounded up)
- the minimum price for winning lottery ticket should be set to 50k

Research made by (in alphabetical order): Abaendanox Leond, Dans Cruf, Droglas, Kagonesti, Kasemcat Chaos, Knight recruit, Sammeh the cute, Taki sobie mis.
We also want to say "thank you" to everyone who helped us with gathering data the biggest thanks goes to Daken and Giant of the caverobbers!.

 
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